Not so long ago, people were also saying Russia getting Trump elected was a brilliant play.
Meanwhile, Assad’s gone. Iran’s been bombed and Trumps threatening invasion if they use violence to put down protests, and just before christmas openly supported Israel going to war with them. Venezuela’s been bombed and is being pressured to open up their oil industry to the Americans, not so long ago China signed a deal with Maduro but that’s now uncertain. Cuba’s probably next. Panama too, also not great for China. Oil prices are set to fall even further, and this is an existential threat to the Russian government. Africa? The US bombed Nigeria just before the new year. Why sign a deal with Russia or China and risk angering the US? Unlike China or Russia the can and will happily kidnap you and your family, or worse.
Sure, the European far right has received money from Russia, but you can’t buy the loyalty of mercenaries. Trump certainly isn’t particularly loyal, is he? So if the far right gain power in the wrong country, you’ll end up with recently re-armed fascist countries on Russia’s border. Fascist countries with a historical grievance against Russia, which are just as likely to seek common cause with Ukrainian nationalists. Fascists respect strength. Russia hasn’t been projecting a lot of that lately. Trump certainly doesn’t, as is obvious from how he’s treating traditional Russian allies.
Meanwhile, Japan’s defense budget just hit a record for the tenth year running and they’re seriously considering acquiring nukes. Nuclear proliferation is likely. South Korea may be next. Hell, Poland’s defense budget also keeps hitting records, they all seem to virulently hate Russia, and both Tusk and Duda are on record as saying Poland MUST acquire nuclear weapons. To quote Tusk: “Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.” They don’t have the means to do it soon, but that kind of rhetoric from an antagonistic neighbour isn’t great.
TLDR: it’s a huge gamble. We often overestimate the abilities of people who were simply lucky. Putin is no different. He takes risks, sometimes it pays off. If Russia had managed to capture Zelensky in the initial three day invasion, we would all have called him a tactical mastermind. But it still wouldn’t have been true. It would have been a dangerous gamble and him having had luck wouldn’t have changed that fact. Now that he lost that gamble, and we’re on day 1412 on a three day miltary operation, it’s even more obvious. His meddling in European and American politics is no different.
Not so long ago, people were also saying Russia getting Trump elected was a brilliant play.
Meanwhile, Assad’s gone. Iran’s been bombed and Trumps threatening invasion if they use violence to put down protests, and just before christmas openly supported Israel going to war with them. Venezuela’s been bombed and is being pressured to open up their oil industry to the Americans, not so long ago China signed a deal with Maduro but that’s now uncertain. Cuba’s probably next. Panama too, also not great for China. Oil prices are set to fall even further, and this is an existential threat to the Russian government. Africa? The US bombed Nigeria just before the new year. Why sign a deal with Russia or China and risk angering the US? Unlike China or Russia the can and will happily kidnap you and your family, or worse.
Sure, the European far right has received money from Russia, but you can’t buy the loyalty of mercenaries. Trump certainly isn’t particularly loyal, is he? So if the far right gain power in the wrong country, you’ll end up with recently re-armed fascist countries on Russia’s border. Fascist countries with a historical grievance against Russia, which are just as likely to seek common cause with Ukrainian nationalists. Fascists respect strength. Russia hasn’t been projecting a lot of that lately. Trump certainly doesn’t, as is obvious from how he’s treating traditional Russian allies.
Meanwhile, Japan’s defense budget just hit a record for the tenth year running and they’re seriously considering acquiring nukes. Nuclear proliferation is likely. South Korea may be next. Hell, Poland’s defense budget also keeps hitting records, they all seem to virulently hate Russia, and both Tusk and Duda are on record as saying Poland MUST acquire nuclear weapons. To quote Tusk: “Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.” They don’t have the means to do it soon, but that kind of rhetoric from an antagonistic neighbour isn’t great.
TLDR: it’s a huge gamble. We often overestimate the abilities of people who were simply lucky. Putin is no different. He takes risks, sometimes it pays off. If Russia had managed to capture Zelensky in the initial three day invasion, we would all have called him a tactical mastermind. But it still wouldn’t have been true. It would have been a dangerous gamble and him having had luck wouldn’t have changed that fact. Now that he lost that gamble, and we’re on day 1412 on a three day miltary operation, it’s even more obvious. His meddling in European and American politics is no different.