There’s a pretty good reason to think it’s not going to improve much. The size of models and amount of compute and training data required to create them is increasing much faster than their performance is increasing, and they’re already putting serious strain on the world’s ability to build and power computers, and the world’s ability to get human-written text into training sets (hence why so many sites are having to deploy things like Anubis to keep themselves functioning). The levers AI companies have access to are already pulled as far as they can go, and so the slowing of improvement can only increase, and the returns can only diminish faster.
I can only say I hope you’re right. I don’t like the way things are going, but I need to do what I can to adapt and survive so I choose to not put my hopes on AI failing anytime soon.
By the way, thank you for the thoughtful responses and discussion.
There’s a pretty good reason to think it’s not going to improve much. The size of models and amount of compute and training data required to create them is increasing much faster than their performance is increasing, and they’re already putting serious strain on the world’s ability to build and power computers, and the world’s ability to get human-written text into training sets (hence why so many sites are having to deploy things like Anubis to keep themselves functioning). The levers AI companies have access to are already pulled as far as they can go, and so the slowing of improvement can only increase, and the returns can only diminish faster.
I can only say I hope you’re right. I don’t like the way things are going, but I need to do what I can to adapt and survive so I choose to not put my hopes on AI failing anytime soon.
By the way, thank you for the thoughtful responses and discussion.