I’m not in the US, but it seems to me that the Republicans keep breaking norms and procedures, including politicising impeachment and ignoring illegal, immoral and plain bad conduct.
They also seem to be fine with not applying the same standard across the isle.
On the other hand, either Democrats follow new precedent, with even more devolving, or they keep the old decorum and get their asses kicked by Republican foul play.
What ways out of this spiral are there?
I see basically three ways out:
Democrats/someones sane win overwhelming majority for long enough to harden procedures, cement effective enforcement, and subversion proof the whole system, while not succumbing to their own corruption. Seems incredibly unlikely.
Autocracy and/or persecution of political rivals, where dissenters “fall out windows” a lot or the legislative body is replaced, until stability reforms and new norms can be reintroduced. Seems most likely currently, and has several contemporary examples.
Revolt, public and/or military, throwing out all the politicians and imposing exile or lynching of the offending politicians. Seems improbable, and especially to unite enough to throw out all the bad behaviour. Also will lead to a junta, civil strife and/or provisional government which come with their own slew of issues and corruption.
The Republicans grow a sense of decorum to protect the less privileged party. I can’t imagine this happening without basically a GOP-internal pogrom under a strongman, but Republican conservatism pulls a strongman in the opposite direction. Unless perhaps they’re some kind of upstanding teocrat perhaps?
This is all wild and slightly saddening speculation, please feel free to suggest other paths!
I still think the US states splitting up like the USSR did is entirely on the table.
California is not going to continue being the republican punching bag and funding red states forever.
A split like this would likely allow some people to move, and ease the tensions measurably.
The states would still trade/function with each other, I don’t expect them to go to war or anything.
States leaving isn’t realistic. They are way more integrated than the EU has ever dreamed of being. Brexit was messy with a mostly independent UK, something like California leaving would take decades of negotiations to replace existing interstate compacts with treaties.
California is interesting because they control much of what the rest of the country wants. They are the gateway for US imports (Ports of LA/LB), provide a significant amount of agriculture, and have one of the highest operating economies in the world.
I’d add NY to that shortlist. Port of Elizabeth is technically NJ but they aren’t fooling anyone.
That’s only true because they are part of the US, which guarantees a lot of free trade/resources from other states. There’s also other things like California being dependent on electricity from other states, the price isn’t going to stay the same.
That demand would have to come through CA anyway regardless, as the existing rail network essentially assumes all Asian sea shipments come through CA. Shipping could be rerouted through Oregon and Washington (assuming they don’t follow suit and split), but it would take decades to get the infrastructure in place. A LOT of US consumption goods are routed through CA ports. Free interstate trade aside, California exports more goods than it imports.
California also imports 30% of it’s power from out-of-state, and with renewables in the Mojave region ramping up, that figure is expected to decrease in the coming decades. While that makes us the largest power importer in the country, we are the 4th largest producer in the country behind TX (who’s grid is isolated from the rest of the country), FL, and PA. On top of that, all new residential construction is required to install a PV system (with minimal exceptions), which certainly helps grid demand, and commercial/industrial operations are adopting solar to offset costs. The fact of the matter is that California is home to a fuckton of people as well as a lot of industry, and yes that demands a lot of power, but CA has been pushing local reliance for a while with promising results.
The USSR was integrated too, and still broke up.
This situation would be more similar to that than Brexit.
The USSR wasn’t integrated, it was centralized. Shortages weren’t shared to reduce impact, resources where distributed by political connection first and need second. Movement was highly controlled.
The things the founding fathers see as mistakes, right?
Sounds like slavery would be back on the menu in addition to anything they actually fixed.
I think so, they were very much for “the will of the people” and if they saw the will of the people of today is that slavery is bad then they wouldn’t see it as a mistake.
They would absolutely see what Trump and MAGA-GOP are doing as a subversion to that will of the people as a problem though and (after catching them up on 200+ years of technological and sociological development) would see the issues in their original implementation
They were for the will of the rich, land owning white men.
Great suggestion, I’ll put it near the top of the improbable pile.