I think the global pandemic sped up the inevitable reconsideration of the way our society is structured, and if you wanna buy me a beer, then one day maybe I’ll tell you all my thoughts on technofuedalism, China’s acceptance into the WTO, and Citizens United. The Morning Dump, which you are reading, is focused on […]
Specifically, he points out that the country is short 600,000 manufacturing workers and 400,000 auto mechanics.
If you think auto mechanics have a bright future you’re mistaken. As automakers move to EV platforms cars are becoming much simpler. Both to manufacturer and repair.
An electric vehicle is an order of magnitude simpler in design than an ICE car.
Furthermore, advancements in robotics from AI and—suddenly—vastly cheaper industrial servos will result in fully automated car maintenance. You’ll pull your car into a shop that’s been pre-programmed for your vehicle and it’ll be able to handle 90-99% of all maintenance tasks.
AI only has to be shown—by hand—how to perform an operation once. No matter how many steps! Even if there’s all sorts of crazy tolerances where cars can come in different configurations, the AI will be able to find the screw holes and remove panels without damaging wiring harnesses. They can even find screws that drop (which is better than me, haha).
There will always be a need for some mechanics but they’re going to mostly be handling big stuff. Not common sedans and trucks.
My prediction: The first fully automated robotics shops will be the tire places. Because there’s only so many types of wheels/tires, ya know?
They’re fucked if the last assembly line worker quit before their jobs can be automated.
It’s the same process that nazi Ford started over a century ago. Every new factory is built to be run with less workforce.
Specifically for repairs, most diagnostics is literally just running a diagnostic program.
I’ve always thought that was the one place AR glasses would really take off. A repair program would just tell the human where to look (like the pigeon guided bombs of old) and could just pop up instructions if something needs physically manipulated.
Like, if your familiar with the bicameral mind theory, it would take over the high level instructions and leave the human to do the fine aspects that it can’t handle yet.
But still…
That would mean less humans with jobs, and the jobs would be much lower pay.
If you think auto mechanics have a bright future you’re mistaken. As automakers move to EV platforms cars are becoming much simpler. Both to manufacturer and repair.
An electric vehicle is an order of magnitude simpler in design than an ICE car.
Furthermore, advancements in robotics from AI and—suddenly—vastly cheaper industrial servos will result in fully automated car maintenance. You’ll pull your car into a shop that’s been pre-programmed for your vehicle and it’ll be able to handle 90-99% of all maintenance tasks.
AI only has to be shown—by hand—how to perform an operation once. No matter how many steps! Even if there’s all sorts of crazy tolerances where cars can come in different configurations, the AI will be able to find the screw holes and remove panels without damaging wiring harnesses. They can even find screws that drop (which is better than me, haha).
There will always be a need for some mechanics but they’re going to mostly be handling big stuff. Not common sedans and trucks.
My prediction: The first fully automated robotics shops will be the tire places. Because there’s only so many types of wheels/tires, ya know?
They’re fucked if the last assembly line worker quit before their jobs can be automated.
It’s the same process that nazi Ford started over a century ago. Every new factory is built to be run with less workforce.
Specifically for repairs, most diagnostics is literally just running a diagnostic program.
I’ve always thought that was the one place AR glasses would really take off. A repair program would just tell the human where to look (like the pigeon guided bombs of old) and could just pop up instructions if something needs physically manipulated.
Like, if your familiar with the bicameral mind theory, it would take over the high level instructions and leave the human to do the fine aspects that it can’t handle yet.
But still…
That would mean less humans with jobs, and the jobs would be much lower pay.