• 2 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • It is not “normal” to run a 4 year money loser and claiming to be worth billions.

    Maybe not, but it is absolutely normal to lose money for years to make a profit later.
    Microsoft was ready to lose money on Xbox for 10 years to take a place in the console market. And it’s a very profitable market for them now.
    Microsoft tried some of the same with Windows Phone, where they invested billions for years before they gave up.

    One of the most hyped AI companies is probably OpenAI, and they absolutely have products that makes them money. They are not profitable yet.
    But among the bigger stock holders are Nvidia and Microsoft, and if OpenAI goes under, they will absolutely survive just fine. But I don’t think they will.
    OpenAI is owned by companies that know how to make money, and apparently OpenAI knows how to do it too, and has been quicker to make money on for instance ChatGPT than Google was on making money on YouTube.

    Some AI companies will go down, that’s the nature of being in a cutting edge business, and it’s the nature of competition. But I think the AI business will mature and stabilize like most businesses have, not burst like a bubble.

    Nobody called it a bubble when the smartphone market exploded. Because everybody could see the value of the product, although it’s not quite the same, many companies have been forced out of the smartphone market due to competition. I think the AI market will be mostly similar.








  • I don’t think it’s a bubble, first there is absolutely zero comparison to the housing bubble, which was a financial problem that caused housing prices to inflate, while the inherent value of housing stayed the same. This alleged AI bubble is mostly driven by companies that have lots of money, so it is not credit based, and there are underlying products that actually have increasing value.

    The better comparison would be the dot com bubble, which was dominated by companies that didn’t even have a product and didn’t make any money. The frenzy is similar, but the fundamentals are different.

    AI investments may cool down because obviously there is a frantic race in an attempt to get ahead.
    But the reason I don’t think the AI bubble will burst is because it is driven by companies that actually make money.
    They may lose money investing too heavily in this, but the most companies investing in this can afford it.

    I think the most AI bubbly company isn’t even in the diagram, because that is Tesla. Tesla might actually go down, because Musk is insane.

    But in general if it is a bubble, it is a very very long one, Nvidia value has been exploding since 2016 based on their AI product dominance. If this is a bubble, I think it will go down in history as the longest living bubble ever.

    Is the market frantic? Yes absolutely.
    Is the value of some AI companies extremely high? Yes absolutely.
    Is it a bubble that will burst? No if it’s a bubble, this one will be more like deflating to a less frantic level, because ALL the main players have the money to weather losses.
    And the main AI companies have actual products that make money for them rolled out already. So it is not like the dot com bubble.




  • That’s a weird thing to say, since top Mediatek for a couple of recent generations were actually more powerful than top Qualcomm, including on graphics.
    Qualcomm typically has an edge on efficiency, but it’s only an edge, not like they are in different leagues, and MediaTek is absolutely a great option if you want a high end very powerful phone.
    IMO it’s by far the best (only really good) place to save cost if you want to make a flagship killer, and at half the price it ought to be a no-brainer.

    HOWEVER!
    After actually reading the article:

    with unit pricing expected to range between $180 and $200. In contrast, Qualcomm’s latest premium SoC reportedly costs smartphone manufacturers as much as $280

    The 180-200 price is repeated in the table shown. <so how is 180 less than half of 280?
    Seems to me more like a saving of 36%.


  • Microsoft made phones in competition with for instance Nokia and Blackberry AFAIK generally called Microsoft Phone/devices because the “Windows” they used had very little to do with desktop Windows. Microsoft iterated through different mobile OSes Windows CE, Windows mobile, pocket PC etc. made for different types of mobile devices like digital assistants and phones, and common among them was that they all sucked very very badly, and they were generally quickly canceled.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Mobile

    those phones/gadgets were very different from iPhone, and later Microsoft copied the way way superior iPhone concept for the Windows Phone.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Phone

    Microsoft was so incompetent that when iPhone came out, Steve Blamer laughed about it not having a keyboard.
    That symbolizes how stupidly out of touch Microsoft is as a developer of new technologies. They don’t understand the use case until it’s actually made popular by someone else.


  • I 100% dress for others, I don’t really care about clothing, and I hate to buy new clothes. I only do it because I think I may be nearing some limit of what is considered decent to wear in the presence of other people, who 100% always are better dressed than me.

    The other day I was at the supermarket, and had seen they had a special offer on “plaice” I think it’s called.
    Well the special offer was sold out, and I asked an employee if they had anymore.
    The employee was extremely nice, and asked how many I had planned to buy? And I said 2, then he took 2 bags that had 50% more content, and wrote the price of the special offer on them, and said I should just mention his name at the register.
    I though Wow that stellar service, and it was only when I came home I realized I had some of my worst pants on that are so warn they had holes in them.
    I have newer pants, but I don’t like them, because they have no sway and they are some sort of stretch material to be tight, and I absolutely hate that. And I also hate shopping for clothes.

    Anyways because my clothes are (to put it mildly) sub par for normal people, I figured he probably thought I was some sort of destitute.

    I am married, and our economy is absolutely fine, we own an almost paid out house, and we have a car that was bought cash without borrowing, and we have a good amount of money in the bank.

    Anyways I don’t care, maybe because I don’t have to. I just want clothes that are comfortable.