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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • The golden standard for me, about anything really, is a number of published research from relevant experts that are not affiliated with the entities invested in the outcome of the study, forming some kind of scientific consensus. The question of sentience is a bit of a murky water, so I, as a random programmer, can’t tell you what the exact composition of those experts and their research should be, I suspect it itself is a subject for a study or twelve.
    Right now, based on my understanding of the topic, there is a binary sentience/non sentience switch, but there is a gradient after that. I’m not sure we know enough about the topic to understand the gradient before this point, I’m sure it should exist, but since we never actually made one or even confirmed that it’s possible to make one, we don’t know much about it.


  • We attribute agency to everything, absolutely. But previously, we understood that it’s tongue-in-cheek to some extend. Now we got crazy and do it for real. Like, a lot of people talk about their car as if it’s alive, they gave it a name, they talk about it’s character and how it’s doing something “to spite you” and if it doesn’t start in cold weather, they ask it nicely and talk to it. But when you start believing for real that your car is a sentient object that talks to you and gives you information, we always understood that this is the time when you need to be committed to a mental institution.
    With chatbots this distinction got lost, and people started behaving as if it’s actually sentient. It’s not a metaphor anymore. This is a problem, even if it’s not the problem.


  • Fusion was achieved decades ago. But right now it takes more energy than it produces. The theoretical possibility of energy-positive reaction is more or less established. The problem right now is engineering and a little bit of material science. And when (and if) it will be solved there will be whole another set of economical problems, how to make it a commercial product.
    All of that hinges less on science and more on whatever intersection of politics, economics, and psychology occupies this space. It was always 15 years away, and it was always correct estimation, it’s just it’s supposed to be 15 years of founded research and development, not 15 years of begging for funding, trying to navigate political situation, and restarting everything from scratch because previous two were unsuccessful






  • It’s a comparatively new product, but it’s not like it’s something unsuccessful. It’s attached to Steam, that everyone who ever had a computer knows about, and everyone has a couple of games there, it’s being talked about very positively everywhere, and they’re repeatedly gained positive reputation over pro-consumer practices they regularly employ, and they somehow evading being put on blast for the child gambling industry they operate.
    They’re known among gamers, which is indeed niche crowd, but also a crowd that is important here. They don’t have the cultural grasp on humanity as Nintendo, or other two, but all of them shitting the bed constantly and publicly, while Valve is catching wins all over the place.


  • Not exactly, but overlap is significant. A bunch of people want Nintendo because they always did Nintendo and that’s all they know, a bunch of people know that switch is something that kids want and so they get one, sure. But a bunch of people want to play some games lying on a couch or riding a metro or sitting in a queue at a dentist, and those people will at least google what exists on the market. This is an overlapped audience, and for a lot of them steam deck will be the obviously better choice.





  • That’s the fun thing: burden of proof isn’t on me. You seem to think that if we throw enough numbers at the wall, the resulting mess will become sentient any time now. There is no indication of that. The hypothesis that you operate on seems to be that complexity inevitably leads to not just any emerged phenomenon, but also to a phenomenon that you predicted would emerge. This hypotheses was started exclusively on idea that emerged phenomena exist. We spent significant amount of time running world-wide experiment on it, and the conclusion so far, if we peel the marketing bullshit away, is that if we spend all the computation power in the world on crunching all the data in the world, the autocomplete will get marginally better in some specific cases. And also that humans are idiots and will anthropomorphize anything, but that’s a given.
    It doesn’t mean this emergent leap is impossible, but mainly because you can’t really prove the negative. But we’re no closer to understanding the phenomenon of agency than we were hundred years ago.