Profile pic is from Jason Box, depicting a projection of Arctic warming to the year 2100 based on current trends.

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Cake day: March 3rd, 2024

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  • In some aspects this results in situations that the original Star Trek 3-D chess has with its movable platforms. The issue with chess variants is always how it adds while not unbalancing the game, and that’s a difficult thing to test since chess by itself is complex even with its simple rules.












  • But since we’re talking about early life forming (actually chemical replicators, much simpler than a virus) let’s use the card shuffling odds, but decks of cards are being shuffled in billions or trillions of places on early Earth every second for millions of years. Even a very low odds of finding a working sequence of molecules will be found geologically quickly given the amount of times done over area and time. We’re pretty sure now that life began very soon once the Earth cooled down enough to allow it. What took much longer was the more complex forms of life like viruses and single cells, then even longer for multicellular.


  • I haven’t had to link this in a long time. Here is the link to the relevant FAQ topic about abiogenesis from the talk.origins Usenet compilation. If you’re honestly curious about the real statistics, that’s a start. The cited works are obviously old but the science hasn’t changed, if anything we’ve learned more.

    Usually the strawman against abiogenesis is that a simple bacterium or virus can’t just appear from nowhere, which of course is true but isn’t what the science of the beginnings of life even remotely suggests. The opposite is actually true, in a world where there are no higher life forms to compete with we’d probably see all sorts of complex combinations of chemicals that eventually run across a replication process. This is the answer to OP’s question, once higher life develops, the basic chemical replicators can’t compete anymore. Or get absorbed into a symbiosis, as what seems to be the case with the mitochondria.

    With the right conditions on other worlds (not necessarily only what Earth was like) simple life forms may be very common. We certainly now know just from recent sampling that there are planets everywhere.