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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • The countries that hit the brick wall fastest during the Arab Spring were - curiously - the ones where the US had the biggest influence. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Iraq… all saw the movement flatline in a matter of weeks. Egypt and Turkiye saw some early movement and even a successful turn of government, but immediately boomeranged back to military dictatorship when too many Arab Nationalists started gaining steam. Gaza and the West Bank had a moment, only for the Israelis to freak out and start killing people for mentioning the Nakba.

    Libya, Syria, and Iran saw real instability, though. The Qaddafi government came crashing down, with its ex-leader dying to sodemy by razor blades. Assad put down his revolt with horrible violence per family tradition, buying himself another ten years of dictatorship. Liberal Iranians once again became cannon fodder for the counter-revolution, while Americans were prompted to liberate the country in the same way we’d liberated its Saddem-Era neighbor.

    None of these stories ended well, because none began with an eye towards actual democratic liberalization. The Arab Spring was a beautiful narrative spun atop a horrifying region wide civil war for control of… oil.



  • The Lich system was pretty close to the mark. Possible that developers gave the underlying features of SoM a wide berth out of caution, but so much of this seems to boil down to “we don’t want to risk the possibility of a lawsuit” rather than “we can’t just do our thing and see if WB’s lawyers care enough”.

    So long as you’re not directly ripping off the code from another system, patent courts have been pretty generous in interpreting overlapping abstract concepts.

    But any kind of suit is scary, particularly for studios that aren’t geared up to fight them.









  • Absolutely crazy to think Trump isn’t aggressively contesting the entire Pacific Rim, North Africa, and Eastern Europe. FFS, how many times does he need to bomb Iran or Yemen before this shit is settled? How many times does need to send Steves Banon and Miller out to Germany, Poland, and Hungary to whip support within the fascist parties? How come the common denominator between every banana republic fascist in Latin America is their Austro-Hungarian parentage and their avowed support for Israel?

    Might be closer to say he’s ceding the African/East Asian Global South to the Israelis/Saudis/Qataris/UAE. But even that gives him far too much credit.




  • Costco tends to focus its locations in large municipalities with high throughput, while Walmart built its business model on rural monopolization of retail where it could be feast or famine any given week. Costco optimized around sales flow, while Walmart optimized around margin per unit sold.

    Both have been incredibly profitable over their lifetimes. Both have benefited from cities and states effectively paying subsidies to attract Big Box retailers that would drive out their smaller competitors. Both are, fundamentally, capitalist enterprises fixated on maximizing profit surplus.

    The “problems” Walmart faces are problems pushed onto staffers and shoppers in markets where retail sales have declined. The “solutions” that Costco landed on only seem to work in wealthier and denser neighborhoods, where retail sales jobs are still the bottom rung of the economy.



  • The backbone of the petrodollar is the deal with the Saudis where they agreed to exclusively trade oil in USD. That deal is no longer in place.

    The non-renewal of the 50 year agreement hasn’t changed the Saudi wholesaling of their light sweet crude in USD. Nor has it discouraged the Saudis from accruing enormous volumes of US Treasury notes with those dollars. Nor purchasing US military equipment nor contracting with US energy companies for transport and refining nor gobbling up commodities in US agricultural and industrial markets.

    This is the real reason the US wants to steal Venezuela’s oil now.

    It’s not. The US is a net oil exporter. We don’t need Venezuela’s oil now any more than we needed it 20 years ago, when the Fraking boom began.

    But Venezuela’s export markets help keep Cuba’s economy afloat and their power on. Cutting off the bilateral trade between Venezuela and Cuba helps further isolate Cuba. And that opens Cuba up to a similar encirclement and bombardment and eventual decapitation of national leadership.

    If you look at the people running the Trump bureaucracy, Cuba is the real crown jewel of Carribbean foreign policy. It’s the prize everyone from Marco Rubio to Jeff Bezos has their eyes on and the reason why Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is crowded with guisanos looking to re-colonize the island.

    None of this has to do with the petrodollar, which remains as strong as ever. The goal is to finally crack Cuba like the US cracked Chile, Argentina, and (for at least a little while under Bolsonaro) Brazil.