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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • If Nike shoes go from $200 to $300 from tariffs, there is a big opportunity for crossborder shopping in Canada or Mexico, where in Canada they would be $226. And then more opportunity to smuggle them with volume discounts for US ebay listings. A peer to peer smuggling network takes away from “backbone of retail economy”, and then lowers value of US official market such that making $300 shoes inside the US costs a big investment, and still loses to smuggling.

    Apparel industry jobs tend not to be as glamourous as Boeing, Catterpillar, Deere jobs which are pretty much only US manufacturing export sector than defense. Losing export markets from hatred of US, doesn’t get replaced with good jobs in apparel, or exports of expensive US apparel.

    There’s also a good chance that competing global brands take massive market share from US aligned companies, and less scale will mean less marketing budget.







  • follow up on this… xAI appears to have raised $18B in funding rounds. But November 2024 was at $50B, December 2024 was $40B. X’s ownership of xAI, caused its interest expense on high debt levels to rise to $1B/year (debt levels approaching close to $20B estimated)

    It is a major stretch to value xAI higher than the $50B peak. Chinese open source models released have depressed overall US AI stocks, and xAI has major cash burn in implementing its model, and Musk has ever increasing brand hatred culminating in government persecution threats to anyone who could say something negative about him or his companies that becomes propaganda fuel for actual damage to his vehicles/dealerships.