Speaking of Linux, this OS family’s slice of the Steam Software Survey pie sits at 3.20%, with a not all that impressive 0.15% overall gain compared to the previous month.
Not impressive when you (deliberately?) use the absolute increase over one single month to minimize how fast the Linux share appears to be growing. If you look at its increase over approximately the last 5 years, there’s a significant and strong growth trend. November 2020 to November 2025, that’s ((3.2% - 0.9%) / 0.9%), which equals a 255% increase over that time frame. Not only is that solid growth, but the graph shows that this growth seems to be accelerating. Source for the numbers: https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
255% growth is really easy when the numbers are so small.
I worked at a place once where they were celebrating a new product because “it had 100% growth!” and ragging on another because it only had 0.5% growth and was obviously dying off.
Thing was, the product with 100% growth went from something like 200 to 400 customers, so it was technically 100%, and the 0.5% one added 800 customers but already had something like 160,000 customers so 200 customers would have been a rounding error to it.
My point is, don’t just focus on the percentages when you’re dealing with such large disparities, it can be disingenuous.
If Linux adoption was something of a single season, some sort of growth Linux community had in the “early 2020” your argument would be valid: you had a steady growth on Linux’s own name:
but this is not what is happening, Linux isn’t growing on its own number, but on the number of the global PC gaming growth.
New desktop/gaming PC are sold by default with Windows: it mean people don’t “choose” Windows, they simply come with the stuff they bought.
Windows 11 “growth” is mostly like that: it’s not about a growth of users that willingly are choosing Windows. The very slow pace of decline of Windows 10 tell also that people is unwilling to buy into Microsoft experience… even if they are basically forced to: they also cannot chose Windows 10.
On the other side, every newcomers Linux userbase is an active and willing-fully choice: the fact that “new Windows 11” (aka: default new PC) is not restricting the Linux userbase which, on the contrary, is keeping up with the pace (no, it’s not “thanks” to steam deck also: the SD’s gpu stopped it’s growth as you can see in the Steam HW survey).
These are the key elements:
-- PC gaming is growing,
-- PC prebuilt market is slowing down (thanks to the ugly Windows 11)
-- Windows 10 decline very slow (looks like used market and DIY rigs still attract the old "not ugly/AI" Windows 11)
-- Linux is keeping the pace even tho the "pushing" of SteamDeck came to end.
2.3 percentage points of growth is not all that small when talking about steam’s user base I think. and his point about acceleration is interesting, we might still be in the early phases of an s-curve.
personally though, as a 20-year Linux user I’m already gobsmacked by the number of new users and mainstream discussion around linux. if we never crack 5% that will already be more users than I ever thought Linux would get
Same boat, ~20-year user, really happy to see so much development around Linux. Great apps, environments, gaming, system light/dark mode, etc etc. Just enjoying the ride of it growing into a modern desktop.
My latest venture is Niri, which I think I’ll stay with for a long while if everything progresses in the right direction (or stays unchanged, it’s already great).
Not impressive when you (deliberately?) use the absolute increase over one single month to minimize how fast the Linux share appears to be growing. If you look at its increase over approximately the last 5 years, there’s a significant and strong growth trend. November 2020 to November 2025, that’s ((3.2% - 0.9%) / 0.9%), which equals a 255% increase over that time frame. Not only is that solid growth, but the graph shows that this growth seems to be accelerating. Source for the numbers: https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
You did a pet peeve of mine….
255% growth is really easy when the numbers are so small.
I worked at a place once where they were celebrating a new product because “it had 100% growth!” and ragging on another because it only had 0.5% growth and was obviously dying off.
Thing was, the product with 100% growth went from something like 200 to 400 customers, so it was technically 100%, and the 0.5% one added 800 customers but already had something like 160,000 customers so 200 customers would have been a rounding error to it.
My point is, don’t just focus on the percentages when you’re dealing with such large disparities, it can be disingenuous.
If Linux adoption was something of a single season, some sort of growth Linux community had in the “early 2020” your argument would be valid: you had a steady growth on Linux’s own name:
if in the 2020 Linux were 2 and.. in 2025 were were 20 = you had a 900% growthbut this is not what is happening, Linux isn’t growing on its own number, but on the number of the global PC gaming growth. New desktop/gaming PC are sold by default with Windows: it mean people don’t “choose” Windows, they simply come with the stuff they bought. Windows 11 “growth” is mostly like that: it’s not about a growth of users that willingly are choosing Windows. The very slow pace of decline of Windows 10 tell also that people is unwilling to buy into Microsoft experience… even if they are basically forced to: they also cannot chose Windows 10.
On the other side, every newcomers Linux userbase is an active and willing-fully choice: the fact that “new Windows 11” (aka: default new PC) is not restricting the Linux userbase which, on the contrary, is keeping up with the pace (no, it’s not “thanks” to steam deck also: the SD’s gpu stopped it’s growth as you can see in the Steam HW survey). These are the key elements:
2.3 percentage points of growth is not all that small when talking about steam’s user base I think. and his point about acceleration is interesting, we might still be in the early phases of an s-curve.
personally though, as a 20-year Linux user I’m already gobsmacked by the number of new users and mainstream discussion around linux. if we never crack 5% that will already be more users than I ever thought Linux would get
Same boat, ~20-year user, really happy to see so much development around Linux. Great apps, environments, gaming, system light/dark mode, etc etc. Just enjoying the ride of it growing into a modern desktop.
My latest venture is Niri, which I think I’ll stay with for a long while if everything progresses in the right direction (or stays unchanged, it’s already great).