So this doesn’t entirely answer your question, but it’s worth watching this reallifelore video on Why Iran Is Dying, as it’s good context for that background of what is going on and gives a frame for what’s next. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8kSGH4I8Ps

🇮🇷 Iran – TL;DR

TL;DR in one bold phrase:
Iran is simultaneous geopolitical whiplash + ecological free-fall.

🔥 Immediate Flash-Points

• Security nosedive: Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad proxies left in tatters; Israeli/US jets roam Iranian skies at will.
• New NATO wedge: US-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan deal may choke Iran off from Russia via the Caucasus.
• Eastern squeeze: Taliban dams on the Helmand & Hari Rivers cut Iranian water to a trickle → border skirmishes.
• Mass deportation: 1.1 million Afghans expelled in one month in a doomed attempt to force more water downstream.

💧 Depleting, Salting, Sinking

Metric	Recent Status	Pre-Crisis Reference
Tehran rainfall	2025 projection = 100 mm	Historic norm = 260 mm
Tehran reservoirs	258 Mm³ left	Long-term average 618 Mm³
National groundwater	200 Bm³ gone, most rest is salty	Original 500 Bm³
Land subsidence	10–31 cm / yr	Critical global = 4 mm / yr

• Lake Urmia – Former largest lake in ME is 90 % gone; dust-storms surging.
• Isfahan – 23 Bm³ air-void under city after centuries of aquifer tap.

🏗️ How We Got Here

1. 1949–1979 – Shah‐Era

   • Hoover-Dam envy → launch of mega-dam program. Displaced ancient qanat system.
   • Industrialization forced onto the water-scarce central plateau.

2. 1979+ – Post-Revolution Float-or-Die Policy

   • Iraq war + US embargo → “Food-export-import is treason”.
   • IRGC-crony “Water Mafia” bloats projects: 80k wells → 800 k wells, 316 dams (2012) → 647 dams (2018).

3. Climate & Corruption

   • Fuel subsidies fund inefficient irrigation; 90 % of drinkable water now feeds ag that earns <12 % GDP.
   • 90 % pipeline leakage vs <10 % in advanced countries.

🗺️ Ethnic Break-points

Region	Issue
Sistan-Baluchestan	Helmand dam chokes wetlands → fuels Baloch separatism.
Khuzestan	Highly salted Karun River attacks Arab minority irrigation.
Azerbaijan & Kurdistan	Vanished Lake Urmia sparks Kurdish–Azeri clashes.

🔮 Forecast

• Even with optimal policy, models: +2.6 °C, –35 % rain in coming decades.
• Iran already spends more water/year than Turkey (similar pop). Beyond end-game for aquifers.

✋ What Would Fix It (but won’t happen soon)

• Immediate well capping & metering.
• Kill water-intensive farm subsidies.
• Redivert IRGC-controlled cash from nukes & foreign proxies to desalination & pipeline repair.
• Accept food import dependence as necessity.