I think the most interesting, and also concerning, point is the eighth point, that people may become busier than ever.
After guiding way too many hobby projects through Claude Code over the past two months, I’m starting to think that most people won’t become unemployed due to AI—they will become busier than ever. Power tools allow more work to be done in less time, and the economy will demand more productivity to match.
Consider the advent of the steam shovel, which allowed humans to dig holes faster than a team using hand shovels. It made existing projects faster and new projects possible. But think about the human operator of the steam shovel. Suddenly, we had a tireless tool that could work 24 hours a day if fueled up and maintained properly, while the human piloting it would need to eat, sleep, and rest.
In fact, we may end up needing new protections for human knowledge workers using these tireless information engines to implement their ideas, much as unions rose as a response to industrial production lines over 100 years ago. Humans need rest, even when machines don’t.
Knowledge worker burn out is real. The idea that this is some inevitable future is nonsense. Feels like a hedge from some who bought the hype.
Any company that tries will end up cannibalisizing productivity.
It’s like claiming that if supercars became affordable everyone will of course start traveling at 120 mph in average. When the reality would be wasted energy and fools wrapping themselves around trees.
This is exactly why I laughed out loud, incredulously, at Dell’s “AI powered laptop” commercial that promises you will “free up so much time for the things you love” by using AI.
From washing machines to robot assembly, we’re still buying that old lie??
The tools improve, the expectations increase, the wage stays the same.
Good point, I wonder if elasticity of demand will be affected by the AI bubble bursting (I expect there will be a recession and demand will get less elastic, bit I’m no economist)
I think the most interesting, and also concerning, point is the eighth point, that people may become busier than ever.
This does sound very much like what Cory Doctorow refers to as a reverse-centaur, where the developer’s responsibility becomes overseeing the AI tool.
Knowledge worker burn out is real. The idea that this is some inevitable future is nonsense. Feels like a hedge from some who bought the hype.
Any company that tries will end up cannibalisizing productivity.
It’s like claiming that if supercars became affordable everyone will of course start traveling at 120 mph in average. When the reality would be wasted energy and fools wrapping themselves around trees.
This is exactly why I laughed out loud, incredulously, at Dell’s “AI powered laptop” commercial that promises you will “free up so much time for the things you love” by using AI.
From washing machines to robot assembly, we’re still buying that old lie??
The tools improve, the expectations increase, the wage stays the same.
I’m confused about the washing machine part. Do they not save time?
Washing machines save lots of time, so anyone working at a laundromat is expected to do way more laundry, for the same wage.
Related: Jevons Paradox
Good point, I wonder if elasticity of demand will be affected by the AI bubble bursting (I expect there will be a recession and demand will get less elastic, bit I’m no economist)