The S and X haven’t really sold well since the model 3/y were ramped up. Those ate most of their sales. Even before the nazi shit they were low, and he’s hinted a couple times before that as well that their days were numbered.
They did want a car to put fancy tech in like the plaid version, but that’ll just be the roadster now instead.
They are leaving a big gap in the lineup though without a bigger SUV, so it’ll be interesting to see if they bring the extended Y from China to other markets now.
Edit: actually it was just after the salute before it’s impact would have been apparent in Feb. They mentioned there was some nostalgia around them even though they weren’t selling a lot, but at the same time said they weren’t going to cancel them… so that didn’t age well.
I don’t think them discontinuing old models is a problem. The problem is that they were supposed to announce new models years ago. No they are closing factories and not only still didn’t announce anything, they are switching to robots. So no new models are coming. It’s a disaster. Looks like Musk took charge at the company, forced everyone to work on Cybertruck, this failed and now they don’t know what to do.
They’ve clearly stated they canceled the newer model in place for the cybercab so ya. Unless that fails and they have to pivot back to cars with steering wheels I think the roadster / semi will be the last new human drivable ones?
It’s not the same company it used to be anymore that’s for sure.
Edit: Maybe the 3/y will get 1 last human refresh too?
I think that they were isolating Elon from real decision making for a long time but he finally took over and forced them to create the Cybertruck. To me it’s not even clear if they are still able to design cars or if Elon completely destroyed their ability to function as a car maker. Shareholders apparently still believe they can create new products but we have seen any evidence of that in years.
I mean, the Cybecab exists and is driving on public roads today with a driver for testing purposes, and without a driver on private roads. It might be a bit far to say suggest they can’t design a car.
The question isn’t can they make a car, but is that car ever going to be allowed to legally drive on public roads as designed without a driver.
No, the question is why does anyone give a fuck about robotic taxis at all? Waymo has been at if far longer, for real, and they are still losing money. There is no business model.
That’s a pretty wild and closed mind thinking to say there’s no business model for it.
I’m not saying Tesla can truly solve this problem, but lets just assume for the moment that they actually can solve self driving.
Note: For anyone who questions this thesis, just to pre-empt people replying “but they can’t do it”, that is NOT what this discussion is going to be about, so get lost.
Now that that is out of the way
Waymo vehicles are retrofitted vehicles that are expensive to begin with, with more expensive hardware. The car itself is 70k+ and with retrofits its well over 100k. Jaguar and their suppliers have to earn a profit on the vehicle, and then Waymo has to pay on top of that to get it all customized. (edit: and pay for service which comes at a profit for the supplier as well)
Tesla has designed a bespoke vehicle specifically for autonomous driving that is going to cost them less than 30k to build at scale including all the hardware, no retrofits needed. Everything from it’s construction, interior, 2 seats vs 4 seats etc are all designed for this one exact purpose. They don’t even have a steering wheel or pedals, and while the video could just be a gimmick, they’ve showcased a robot that is specifically designed to be able to clean this specific interior.
Tesla can refine their own lithium hydroxide, to build their own batteries, which they claim (no proof) are cheaper than their supplier batteries for cost/kwh. That’s not to say they could sell them for more profit than Samsung or LG or BYD, but that those companies put a profit ontop of their cells, and Tesla claims the cost is below that.
So, they refine their own lithium now, could already make batteries cheaper than they could buy them from others before that, they build their own cars where they don’t need to make a profit on the sale, which has been explicitly designed for this one use case and you still don’t think there’s any room for it to be profitable, IF they can actually solve the problem?
It’s still under development and it’s hard to tell what it will do when it hits the roads. What if it’s total disaster like Cybertrack? They don’t just have to design cars. They have to design cars that people want to buy.
The S and X haven’t really sold well since the model 3/y were ramped up. Those ate most of their sales. Even before the nazi shit they were low, and he’s hinted a couple times before that as well that their days were numbered.
They did want a car to put fancy tech in like the plaid version, but that’ll just be the roadster now instead.
They are leaving a big gap in the lineup though without a bigger SUV, so it’ll be interesting to see if they bring the extended Y from China to other markets now.
Edit: actually it was just after the salute before it’s impact would have been apparent in Feb. They mentioned there was some nostalgia around them even though they weren’t selling a lot, but at the same time said they weren’t going to cancel them… so that didn’t age well.
I don’t think them discontinuing old models is a problem. The problem is that they were supposed to announce new models years ago. No they are closing factories and not only still didn’t announce anything, they are switching to robots. So no new models are coming. It’s a disaster. Looks like Musk took charge at the company, forced everyone to work on Cybertruck, this failed and now they don’t know what to do.
They’ve clearly stated they canceled the newer model in place for the cybercab so ya. Unless that fails and they have to pivot back to cars with steering wheels I think the roadster / semi will be the last new human drivable ones?
It’s not the same company it used to be anymore that’s for sure.
Edit: Maybe the 3/y will get 1 last human refresh too?
I think that they were isolating Elon from real decision making for a long time but he finally took over and forced them to create the Cybertruck. To me it’s not even clear if they are still able to design cars or if Elon completely destroyed their ability to function as a car maker. Shareholders apparently still believe they can create new products but we have seen any evidence of that in years.
I mean, the Cybecab exists and is driving on public roads today with a driver for testing purposes, and without a driver on private roads. It might be a bit far to
saysuggest they can’t design a car.The question isn’t can they make a car, but is that car ever going to be allowed to legally drive on public roads as designed without a driver.
No, the question is why does anyone give a fuck about robotic taxis at all? Waymo has been at if far longer, for real, and they are still losing money. There is no business model.
That’s a pretty wild and closed mind thinking to say there’s no business model for it.
I’m not saying Tesla can truly solve this problem, but lets just assume for the moment that they actually can solve self driving.
Note: For anyone who questions this thesis, just to pre-empt people replying “but they can’t do it”, that is NOT what this discussion is going to be about, so get lost.
Now that that is out of the way
Waymo vehicles are retrofitted vehicles that are expensive to begin with, with more expensive hardware. The car itself is 70k+ and with retrofits its well over 100k. Jaguar and their suppliers have to earn a profit on the vehicle, and then Waymo has to pay on top of that to get it all customized. (edit: and pay for service which comes at a profit for the supplier as well)
Tesla has designed a bespoke vehicle specifically for autonomous driving that is going to cost them less than 30k to build at scale including all the hardware, no retrofits needed. Everything from it’s construction, interior, 2 seats vs 4 seats etc are all designed for this one exact purpose. They don’t even have a steering wheel or pedals, and while the video could just be a gimmick, they’ve showcased a robot that is specifically designed to be able to clean this specific interior.
Tesla can refine their own lithium hydroxide, to build their own batteries, which they claim (no proof) are cheaper than their supplier batteries for cost/kwh. That’s not to say they could sell them for more profit than Samsung or LG or BYD, but that those companies put a profit ontop of their cells, and Tesla claims the cost is below that.
So, they refine their own lithium now, could already make batteries cheaper than they could buy them from others before that, they build their own cars where they don’t need to make a profit on the sale, which has been explicitly designed for this one use case and you still don’t think there’s any room for it to be profitable, IF they can actually solve the problem?
It’s still under development and it’s hard to tell what it will do when it hits the roads. What if it’s total disaster like Cybertrack? They don’t just have to design cars. They have to design cars that people want to buy.
Well… that’s not true anymore
They won’t be selling it to people. Like, they are right fucked if this thing can’t drive autonomously and fast.