This could very much represent troubles not just in video game development, but project development in an investor-driven market entirely.
Everyone is focused on short-term wins and profits - so they can demonstrate they’re a fantastic manager making incredible things. They hire 1000 people, then show the grandiose things they made with those people in 2 years so they can take more investment. But the way creative work goes, there are far better ways to play that lottery - they just don’t involve as much active management, and are far less showy.
As a publisher, you could just start 50 small studios of only 10 employees each, with occasional external support as needed to each one, and give all of them 5 years to develop. That would equate to the same or much lesser cost as some of these gigantic multi-outsourced projects, but it means investments are left for longer. And of course, few of them would be a “Hollow Knight” or “Minecraft”, but just enough of them would likely succeed to pay for all the others.
You can see similar concerns in R&D and other similar fields across industries, that give randomized and unpredictable benefit when every manager is watching every quarter’s earnings.
This actually happens a lot, but kind of the other way around. Small indie shops run out of money and small publishers / companies swoop in with venture, throw a lifeline worth of money for a decent stake in the product. It either gets made, or it gets bought by a bigger fish. Sometimes the product is already done and they just need help expanding the audiience
Places like forklift.gg, who helped accelerate Cash Cleaner Simulator
And of course, few of them would be a “Hollow Knight” or “Minecraft”, but just enough of them would likely succeed to pay for all the others.
I would contest this. The vast majority of indie games ‘fail,’ and there is some Machiavellian logic to “let’s make a mediocre game we know will sell.”
Basically zero “micro team” indies turn into Rimworld or Hollow Knight or Stardew Valley, statistically, much less Minecraft. That’s a fantasy.
…That being said, I think there is a “sweet spot” dev team size where diminishing returns are quickly hit. Coffee Stain (the Satisfactory dev) is my classic sweet spot example: Big enough to license Unreal Engine and pretty dependably make something “big” and fantastic, without burning cash detailing pores in ass cheeks and making some broken custom engine to fulfill some suit’s “1st party synergy” fantasy.
They have marketers and such, but it’s frugally spent.
And publishers are pursuing this strategy. Paradox seems to be on a spending spree for mid sized studios, and Embracer Group is notorious for it.
This could very much represent troubles not just in video game development, but project development in an investor-driven market entirely.
Everyone is focused on short-term wins and profits - so they can demonstrate they’re a fantastic manager making incredible things. They hire 1000 people, then show the grandiose things they made with those people in 2 years so they can take more investment. But the way creative work goes, there are far better ways to play that lottery - they just don’t involve as much active management, and are far less showy.
As a publisher, you could just start 50 small studios of only 10 employees each, with occasional external support as needed to each one, and give all of them 5 years to develop. That would equate to the same or much lesser cost as some of these gigantic multi-outsourced projects, but it means investments are left for longer. And of course, few of them would be a “Hollow Knight” or “Minecraft”, but just enough of them would likely succeed to pay for all the others.
You can see similar concerns in R&D and other similar fields across industries, that give randomized and unpredictable benefit when every manager is watching every quarter’s earnings.
This actually happens a lot, but kind of the other way around. Small indie shops run out of money and small publishers / companies swoop in with venture, throw a lifeline worth of money for a decent stake in the product. It either gets made, or it gets bought by a bigger fish. Sometimes the product is already done and they just need help expanding the audiience
Places like forklift.gg, who helped accelerate Cash Cleaner Simulator
I would contest this. The vast majority of indie games ‘fail,’ and there is some Machiavellian logic to “let’s make a mediocre game we know will sell.”
Basically zero “micro team” indies turn into Rimworld or Hollow Knight or Stardew Valley, statistically, much less Minecraft. That’s a fantasy.
…That being said, I think there is a “sweet spot” dev team size where diminishing returns are quickly hit. Coffee Stain (the Satisfactory dev) is my classic sweet spot example: Big enough to license Unreal Engine and pretty dependably make something “big” and fantastic, without burning cash detailing pores in ass cheeks and making some broken custom engine to fulfill some suit’s “1st party synergy” fantasy.
They have marketers and such, but it’s frugally spent.
And publishers are pursuing this strategy. Paradox seems to be on a spending spree for mid sized studios, and Embracer Group is notorious for it.