I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
Predictions are hard, especially about the future.
You don’t say exactly what you want to predict so it’s hard to say exactly what you need to learn. The link returns an error to me.
If you want to predict the next economic crash you’ll have to study a lot of economics. If you want to predict the next pandemic you’ll have to study medicine etc. Years of study no matter what.
Once you know a lot about a topic you have to put a ton of effort into study current events and still be wrong a lot of the time.