Actual EUV production in west started at 7nm in 2019. Device/chip sales did not skyrocket. TSMC/ASML did 5x in value over the time and are the most successful benefiaries of EUV, but most of the gains are during this AI era.
If you mean effect on US stock market from Chinese EUV production, it did take 9 years between EUV availability/existance and commercial production. China has solid 7nm production already, though costs are higher than tsmc. 5nm chips are in successful Huawei products this year already. Huawei released a patent for DUV 2nm chips this month. Near term improvement in the above processes will have much higher near term impact. Non US colonies will buy Chinese phones/PCs, like EVs, as Huawei software (Harmony OS) is already best in class, and production of other phone/pc associated hardware is enough to make great products.
Industry/west needs more short term RAM production, and China is likely to be the fastest source of ramping up that production and selling to west. Traditional chip industry will collapse if extortion/shortages persist in 2026.
I predict steady share gains in chips from China, rather than “a singularity EUV” moment on stock market.
Yeah I’m talking about the US stock market. You’re analysing production and material needs and that makes sense. The stock market prices predict future returns. In normal conditions it would probably take a while for Chinese EUV to bring down ASML’s stock. In the current conditions around the AI pump it might act as a trigger that pops the imagined huge returns because it’ll be a clear signal that China is very likely to eat NVIDIA’s lunch and therefore dependent firms. It might also act as a broader propaganda-piercing signal to investors that China catching up is real and near. That would question the broader semiconductor sector’s future returns too.
Actual EUV production in west started at 7nm in 2019. Device/chip sales did not skyrocket. TSMC/ASML did 5x in value over the time and are the most successful benefiaries of EUV, but most of the gains are during this AI era.
If you mean effect on US stock market from Chinese EUV production, it did take 9 years between EUV availability/existance and commercial production. China has solid 7nm production already, though costs are higher than tsmc. 5nm chips are in successful Huawei products this year already. Huawei released a patent for DUV 2nm chips this month. Near term improvement in the above processes will have much higher near term impact. Non US colonies will buy Chinese phones/PCs, like EVs, as Huawei software (Harmony OS) is already best in class, and production of other phone/pc associated hardware is enough to make great products.
Industry/west needs more short term RAM production, and China is likely to be the fastest source of ramping up that production and selling to west. Traditional chip industry will collapse if extortion/shortages persist in 2026.
I predict steady share gains in chips from China, rather than “a singularity EUV” moment on stock market.
Yeah I’m talking about the US stock market. You’re analysing production and material needs and that makes sense. The stock market prices predict future returns. In normal conditions it would probably take a while for Chinese EUV to bring down ASML’s stock. In the current conditions around the AI pump it might act as a trigger that pops the imagined huge returns because it’ll be a clear signal that China is very likely to eat NVIDIA’s lunch and therefore dependent firms. It might also act as a broader propaganda-piercing signal to investors that China catching up is real and near. That would question the broader semiconductor sector’s future returns too.