I wonder if Trump and Putin talked about this, and Putin was OK with this in return for Trump being OK with Ukraine.
If Putin was genuinely surprised by this, as plenty of Russian milbloggers seem to think, that would seriously weaken his legitimacy. Certainly, Russia and China’s seeming inability to offer any serious support, has seriously weakened their prestige. Especially because both Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela’s oil industry, especially in recent years, so this is a potentially very serious blow. Why would any leader sign a deal with them now, if the Americans can just swoop in and kidnap you and your family?
On the plus side, maybe the Chinese and Russians will learn their lesson and help elect a more sensible candidate this time around. Maybe stop meddling in European politics, sowing division, and funding the invariably Trump aligned far right.
Maybe stop meddling in European politics, sowing division, and funding the invariably Trump aligned far right.
Why would they do that? Helping the European far right lead the West to its doom is a frankly brilliant play by Russia and crew. They can withstand more aggressive Western foreign policy longer than Western liberal democracies can survive with Nazis at the helm.
Not so long ago, people were also saying Russia getting Trump elected was a brilliant play.
Meanwhile, Assad’s gone. Iran’s been bombed and Trumps threatening invasion if they use violence to put down protests, and just before christmas openly supported Israel going to war with them. Venezuela’s been bombed and is being pressured to open up their oil industry to the Americans, not so long ago China signed a deal with Maduro but that’s now uncertain. Cuba’s probably next. Panama too, also not great for China. Oil prices are set to fall even further, and this is an existential threat to the Russian government. Africa? The US bombed Nigeria just before the new year. Why sign a deal with Russia or China and risk angering the US? Unlike China or Russia the can and will happily kidnap you and your family, or worse.
Sure, the European far right has received money from Russia, but you can’t buy the loyalty of mercenaries. Trump certainly isn’t particularly loyal, is he? So if the far right gain power in the wrong country, you’ll end up with recently re-armed fascist countries on Russia’s border. Fascist countries with a historical grievance against Russia, which are just as likely to seek common cause with Ukrainian nationalists. Fascists respect strength. Russia hasn’t been projecting a lot of that lately. Trump certainly doesn’t, as is obvious from how he’s treating traditional Russian allies.
Meanwhile, Japan’s defense budget just hit a record for the tenth year running and they’re seriously considering acquiring nukes. Nuclear proliferation is likely. South Korea may be next. Hell, Poland’s defense budget also keeps hitting records, they all seem to virulently hate Russia, and both Tusk and Duda are on record as saying Poland MUST acquire nuclear weapons. To quote Tusk: “Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.” They don’t have the means to do it soon, but that kind of rhetoric from an antagonistic neighbour isn’t great.
TLDR: it’s a huge gamble. We often overestimate the abilities of people who were simply lucky. Putin is no different. He takes risks, sometimes it pays off. If Russia had managed to capture Zelensky in the initial three day invasion, we would all have called him a tactical mastermind. But it still wouldn’t have been true. It would have been a dangerous gamble and him having had luck wouldn’t have changed that fact. Now that he lost that gamble, and we’re on day 1412 on a three day miltary operation, it’s even more obvious. His meddling in European and American politics is no different.
On the plus side, maybe the Chinese and Russians will learn their lesson and help elect a more sensible candidate this time around.
You say this as if either of those countries had free and fair elections. Putin has been jailing everybody who could stand a chance to run against him, and in China everything is under the CCP.
I wonder if Trump and Putin talked about this, and Putin was OK with this in return for Trump being OK with Ukraine.
If Putin was genuinely surprised by this, as plenty of Russian milbloggers seem to think, that would seriously weaken his legitimacy. Certainly, Russia and China’s seeming inability to offer any serious support, has seriously weakened their prestige. Especially because both Russia and China have invested heavily in Venezuela’s oil industry, especially in recent years, so this is a potentially very serious blow. Why would any leader sign a deal with them now, if the Americans can just swoop in and kidnap you and your family?
On the plus side, maybe the Chinese and Russians will learn their lesson and help elect a more sensible candidate this time around. Maybe stop meddling in European politics, sowing division, and funding the invariably Trump aligned far right.
Why would they do that? Helping the European far right lead the West to its doom is a frankly brilliant play by Russia and crew. They can withstand more aggressive Western foreign policy longer than Western liberal democracies can survive with Nazis at the helm.
Not so long ago, people were also saying Russia getting Trump elected was a brilliant play.
Meanwhile, Assad’s gone. Iran’s been bombed and Trumps threatening invasion if they use violence to put down protests, and just before christmas openly supported Israel going to war with them. Venezuela’s been bombed and is being pressured to open up their oil industry to the Americans, not so long ago China signed a deal with Maduro but that’s now uncertain. Cuba’s probably next. Panama too, also not great for China. Oil prices are set to fall even further, and this is an existential threat to the Russian government. Africa? The US bombed Nigeria just before the new year. Why sign a deal with Russia or China and risk angering the US? Unlike China or Russia the can and will happily kidnap you and your family, or worse.
Sure, the European far right has received money from Russia, but you can’t buy the loyalty of mercenaries. Trump certainly isn’t particularly loyal, is he? So if the far right gain power in the wrong country, you’ll end up with recently re-armed fascist countries on Russia’s border. Fascist countries with a historical grievance against Russia, which are just as likely to seek common cause with Ukrainian nationalists. Fascists respect strength. Russia hasn’t been projecting a lot of that lately. Trump certainly doesn’t, as is obvious from how he’s treating traditional Russian allies.
Meanwhile, Japan’s defense budget just hit a record for the tenth year running and they’re seriously considering acquiring nukes. Nuclear proliferation is likely. South Korea may be next. Hell, Poland’s defense budget also keeps hitting records, they all seem to virulently hate Russia, and both Tusk and Duda are on record as saying Poland MUST acquire nuclear weapons. To quote Tusk: “Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons.” They don’t have the means to do it soon, but that kind of rhetoric from an antagonistic neighbour isn’t great.
TLDR: it’s a huge gamble. We often overestimate the abilities of people who were simply lucky. Putin is no different. He takes risks, sometimes it pays off. If Russia had managed to capture Zelensky in the initial three day invasion, we would all have called him a tactical mastermind. But it still wouldn’t have been true. It would have been a dangerous gamble and him having had luck wouldn’t have changed that fact. Now that he lost that gamble, and we’re on day 1412 on a three day miltary operation, it’s even more obvious. His meddling in European and American politics is no different.
You say this as if either of those countries had free and fair elections. Putin has been jailing everybody who could stand a chance to run against him, and in China everything is under the CCP.
Sorry, you misunderstand.
Help elect more sensible candidates in the US election. Obviously Xi and Putin aren’t going to ever lose an election.