What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.
Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.
As an additional note if I am right and this bubble pops (if a single startup goes under, literally any one) then it’s pretty much the collapse of the global financial system and an economic crisis at the level that the world has never seen before.
Literally, and I cannot stress this enough, the entire current system is built on the belief/sentence/mantra “number go up” with no regard for literally anything else.
Well, great. So looking at 2008 for the most recent model, I suppose that means government bailouts or subsidies using taxpayer money to save the companies and thereby prevent a complete collapse of markets?
Kind of? Except the lenders with the largest amounts of loans in order are: 1.Blue Owl (USA) (remember this company, it’ll be important as a canary probably) 2. Mitsubishi UFJ financial group (Japan) 3. JP Morgan Chase (USA) 4. Deutsch Bank (Germany) 5. BnP Paribas (France) 6. Morgan Stanley (USA) 7. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (Japan)
So kinda like 2008 but you need (at the very least) Japan, Germany, France, the USA, and possibly South Korea to all coordinate and do bailouts cooperatively together to maybe have a chance.
Good thing we haven’t pissed off our allies or disrupted trade in general, and we also haven’t fucked with interest rates or bonds or anything so we have plenty of tools in our arsenal (god help us all, puts on all of our collective livers.)
There is no saving the AI companies because it is mathematically impossible for them to make money. You would have better luck investing in your local meth heads trying to make alchemy real using nothing but books published by Wizards of the Coast.