If this is the way to superintelligence, it remains a bizarre one. “This is back to a million monkeys typing for a million years generating the works of Shakespeare,” Emily Bender told me. But OpenAI’s technology effectively crunches those years down to seconds. A company blog boasts that an o1 model scored better than most humans on a recent coding test that allowed participants to submit 50 possible solutions to each problem—but only when o1 was allowed 10,000 submissions instead. No human could come up with that many possibilities in a reasonable length of time, which is exactly the point. To OpenAI, unlimited time and resources are an advantage that its hardware-grounded models have over biology. Not even two weeks after the launch of the o1 preview, the start-up presented plans to build data centers that would each require the power generated by approximately five large nuclear reactors, enough for almost 3 million homes.
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“Shortly thereafter, Altman pronounced “the dawn of the Intelligence Age,” in which AI helps humankind fix the climate and colonize space.”
Few things ring quite as blatantly false to me as this asinine claim.
The notion that AI will solve the climate crisis is unbelievably stupid, not because of any theory about what AI may or may not be capable of, but because we already know how to fix the climate crisis!
The problem is that we’re putting too much carbon into the air. The solution is to put less carbon into the air. The greatest minds of humanity have been working on this for over a century and the basic answer has never, ever changed.
The problem is that we can’t actually convince people to stop putting carbon into air, because that would involve reducing profit margins, and wealthy people don’t like that.
Even if Altman unveiled a true AGI tomorrow, one smarter than all of humanity put together, and asked it to solve the climate crisis, it would immediately reply “Stop putting carbon in the air you dumb fucking monkeys.” And the billionaires who back Altman would immediately tell him to turn the damn thing off.
AI is actively worsening the climate crisis with its obscene compute requirements and concomitant energy use.
Playing a bit of a devil’s advocate here but you could argue that AGI used in science could help fix climate change. For example what if AGI helps in fusion energy? We are starting to see AI used in the quantum computing field I think.
Even though much carbon would be created to do bullshit tasks it only takes a few critical techs to have a real edge at reversing climate change. I understand fusion energy is quite the holy grail of energy generation but if AGI is real I can’t see why it wouldn’t help in such field.
I’m just saying that we don’t know what new techs we would get with true AGI. So it’s hard to guess if on a longer time it wouldn’t actually be positive. Now it may also delay even more our response to climate change or worsen it… Just trying to see some hope in this.
We already have fission power, solar, wind, hydro, large scale battery storage, mechanical batteries (you can literally store renewable energy using a reservoir), electric cars, blimps, sail powered boats, etc, etc. We’ve had all of these technologies for quite some time.
And yet, we’re still burning coal, oil, and gas.
There’s no magical invention that’s going to fix the basic problem, which is that we have an economic system that demands infinite growth and we live on a finite planet.
Even if we crack fusion today, we won’t be able to build out enough fusion infrastructure fast enough to be a solution on its own. And we’d still be building those fusion plants using trucks and earth movers and cranes that burn diesel.
You cannot out-tech a problem that is, fundamentally, social. At best a hyper-intelligent AGI is going to tell us the solution that we already know; get rid of the billionaires who are driving all this climate damage with their insatiable search for profit. At which point the billionaires who own the AGI will turn it the fuck off until they can reprogram it to only offer “solutions” that maintain the status quo.
The GPT Era Is Already Ending
Had it begun? Alls I saw was a frenzy of idiot investment cheered on shamelessly by hypocritical hypemen.
Seriously, I tried using ChatGPT for my work sooo often and it never gave me results I could work with. I was promised a tool that replaces me, yet it does only suggest me things that are not working correctly.
People writing off AI because it isn’t fully replacing humans. Sounds like writing off calculators because they can’t work without human input.
Used correctly and in the right context, it can still significantly increase productivity.
No, this is the equivalent of writing off calculators if they required as much power as a city block. There are some applications for LLMs, but if they cost this much power, they’re doing far more harm than good.
Imagine if the engineers for computers were just as short sighted. If they had stopped prioritizing development when computers were massive, room sized machines with limited computing power and obscenely inefficient.
Not all AI development is focused on increasing complexity. Much is focused on refinement, and increasing efficiency. And there’s been a ton of progress in this area.
This article and discussion is specifically about massively upscaling LLMs. Go follow the links and read OpenAI’s CEO literally proposing data centers which require multiple, dedicated grid-scale nuclear reactors.
I’m not sure what your definition of optimization and efficiency is, but that sure as heck does not fit mine.
Now that DeepSeek has been released and proven drastically more efficient, just wanted to pop back in and gloat.
Hope this causes you to reexamine your beliefs and biases. Try reading more next time.