One thing I see as underestimated is that having a major standard device is huge for indie development and could greatly benefit the most flourishing artistic landscape.
One of the problems today is that the indie and AAA markets are increasingly distant, publishing a game on the PS5 or XSX digital store is prohibitive for a small indie team, but if Steam Machine is successful, we can expect more easy access to indie games by (ex)console gamers, and later a reduction in publishing costs on consoles.
I believe Steam Deck has already started this process, but with a device that will compete with the 9th generation of home consoles the indie game diffusion could accelerate.
I don’t see how it will have any effect beyond what the Steam store already has on the indie market. Indies already flourish thanks to Steam’s use of discovery algorithms instead of human curation.
The Steam Machine isn’t going to compete with consoles. It’s not a replacement for a console and the target market for this machine is PC users not console users. Console gamers who don’t know what Steam is will not buy this machine like they didn’t buy Steam Decks instead of Nintendo Switches. The goal of Valve’s hardware push is to show that an alternative for Windows is possible. Valve wants to break Microsoft’s monopoly on the PC market. Since Microsoft is the biggest threat for Valve. The more anti-consumer Windows becomes the more it puts Valve’s business in danger, since a shitty Windows experience can push PC gamers towards consoles.
How common do you believe this is in 2025? It’s on every big game’s launch trailer, and Steam dwarfs any console player base. Network effects alone should make just about every console player (who’s old enough to read) aware of what Steam is.